Spring 2023 Forecast – Winter has begun, but long-term forecasts already show what the jet stream will look like for spring 2023. An early look at spring trends shows a continuation from a Sun Nina weak. A high pressure system in the Pacific Ocean determines the development of the climate over North America, creating an impact under the Atlantic Ocean.
But that’s not easy. It has reached the top of the cold ocean that exists in the equatorial Pacific. In the winter of 2022/2023, it should decrease quickly.
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Although these cold anomalies have subsided in the ocean (La Nina), their influence on the global cycle remains. Long-term numbers are expected to extend the Nina Jet Stream’s maintenance from winter to spring 2023.
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The meteorological winter season covers the period from December to January and February. We are coming to the end of the first half of the first winter months. The second half of December is expected to bring good winter energy, especially in North America.
Below are the anomalous temperature forecasts for the United States and southern Canada. The season closes in on the week before Christmas. You may notice a cold front spreading, with cold air moving from the north of the US down to the south and east.
We are currently witnessing the onset of a severe winter due to pressure conditions. Below you will find the pressure anomaly for the same period from the ECMWF Weekly Forecast. A strong gravitational force controls circulation over the Northern Hemisphere.
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The strong barrage extends from the North Atlantic/Greenland through central Canada to the North Pacific Ocean. This disrupts the strong jet stream, which pushes cold air from the arctic regions and allows it to escape further south than usual.
As we look forward to the rest of winter, we take a quick look at the latest seasonal forecasts. A strong high pressure system in the North Pacific is the main driver of the North American weather system. In response, low pressure remains over Canada, and the jet stream bends over the northwestern United States and eastern Canada.
Over North America, ECMWF’s latest forecast shows average surface temperatures to be cooler than most of western Canada, extending into parts of North America. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the southern United States, with a weak anomaly in the northwest.
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The southern and central United States are warmer than normal, while the Northwest and Midwest are experiencing cold spells. But that kind of weather is supporting a cold spell that will spread across the central and eastern United States, as of this month.
Anomaly forecasts for North America show a typical La Niña pattern over Canada and the United States. More rain is expected in western Canada and the northwestern and eastern United States. It is drier in the southern part of the United States.
If we look at the projections of the surface temperature over Europe, we see a warm trend. Most of the country is in the tropical zone. However, temperatures may be above average over western/southern parts. While the U.S. will experience a cold second half through December, Europe is expected to see the most short spells with cold fronts.
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If you look at the rain forecasts, you can see that Europe is dry on the mainland. However, more rain is expected over the Mediterranean and northernmost Europe.
But what is driving these winter trends, and how will they affect the 2023 spring season?
The La Nina event in the tropical Pacific is one of the main drivers of this cold season.
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In the image below you can see the most recent ocean temperature anomaly over the Pacific Ocean. Remember, the water in the Pacific Ocean is colder than normal. This is a mature child in the La Niña region, stretching across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is led by the Pacific Ocean.
The La Niña weather is the main trend in the weather since the end of the fall and will continue in the spring.
La Nina is another name for the cooler seas in the Pacific. The natural ocean climate system is called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). This is a country in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alternates between cold and warm.
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Tropical trade winds (winds that surround the Earth near the equator) sometimes start or stop when they meet the surface of the ocean and change ocean currents.
In the image below from NOAA Climate, you can see the typical circulation pattern during an ENSO cold ocean event. Air rises over the eastern Pacific Ocean, creating persistently dry conditions. In contrast, air rises in the western Pacific, leading to lower pressure, more thunderstorms, and more rain in the western Pacific.
ENSO has a significant influence on tropical convection patterns and the oceanic climate system. Through this direct response system, it provides global climate control.
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We often see global movement of pressure patterns during the onset of ENSO episodes, each with a unique effect on global weather.
To better understand the development of ENSO, we have created a video that shows the different sea conditions from summer to summer 2022.
ENSO cooling resumes in August as cold waves develop over the equatorial Pacific. But the force continued in the month of September as the force of the east.
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The analysis and ensemble forecasts below from ECMWF show the outlook for the eastern ENSO region. La Nina conditions (below -0.5) prevail in winter. But a weaker La Nina is expected to begin soon, with a major change to a warmer period as we get deeper into spring.
Looking at the ocean anomaly forecast map, we can see that the ECMWF has predicted an anomaly over the equatorial Pacific. This indicates that La Nina falls rapidly during the January-March period, but the weather is expected to dominate in the spring.
Typically, the first effect of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the changing jet stream. A jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at an altitude of about 8-11 kilometers (5-7 miles).
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It flows in a west-east movement around the entire northern region, influencing the pressure systems and their strength. This creates the atmosphere on the surface that we feel every day.
Historically, a strong high pressure system in the North Pacific Ocean is usually the result of a cold ENSO season. The figure below shows the typical pattern in recent winters with strong La Nina activity.
A strong high pressure system in the North Pacific Ocean is helping to develop a low pressure area over Alaska and western Canada. This causes the jet stream to bend downwards between the two pressure forces, as shown by the blue lines.
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These results translate well into the spring. So we often see a high system persist in the North Pacific after winter.
You can see the average position of the jet stream during the La Nina winter season in the image below. You can see weather patterns over the US and Canada as the polar jet stream moves in a different direction.
The movement of the jet stream brings warmth and storms to the northern and northwestern United States. But warmer and drier conditions are more common in southern and eastern states.
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In this way, the jet stream has been able to divide the United States into two weather poles. In the northern part of the country, cooler events are more common, as the jet stream drives storm systems and colder weather there.
We look at the two main models (or used) for this first prediction. ECMWF from Europe, and CFSv2 from USA. Images are from ECMWF and CPC/NCEP.
All these forecasts show the average picture over three spring meteorological months (March – April – May) and show the current weather conditions. Even if the models are very accurate, it doesn’t mean that the weather pattern will last for three months straight. It only shows what the weather looks like 40-60% of the time.
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The ECMWF simulation models below show a La Nina high pressure system in the North Pacific. The low pressure system is located in western Canada, with a high over the land of Greenland. The jet stream bends between high and low pressure systems, as we saw in the previous section.
We also see the North Atlantic as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with the North Atlantic blocking. This supports the warm weather over Europe.
The global air temperature forecast below shows that North America is divided into two regions. Western Canada is expected to be cooler than normal. Thanks to the jet stream, there is a lot of time for cold air to spread to the south, to parts of the northern United States, between the Midwest and the northeastern United States. South America is expected to be warmer than normal.
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Europe has higher than normal temperatures. But we do not see a strong positive anomaly due to the high system over Greenland.
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If we look closely at Europe, we see that the surface temperature is higher than normal. bye