Summer Weather Predictions 2023 – Winter has just begun, but long-term forecasts already show the pattern of the jet stream for spring 2023. An early look at spring weather patterns shows the continued influence of a weakened Lanier. A high pressure system in the Pacific will determine the weather in North America and create a low pressure effect over the Atlantic Ocean.
But it is not all that simple. Currently active cold ocean levels peak in the equatorial Pacific. A rapid decline is predicted in late winter 2022/2023.
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Despite the decay of these icy ocean anomalies (La Niña), their influence on the global climate cycle may continue. Long-term climate calculations are also extended to allow the La Niña jet stream to change from winter to spring 2023.
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Weather The winter season includes December to January to February. We are coming to the end of the first half of the first month of winter. The second half of December seems to bring decent winter energy, especially in North America.
Below is a typical temperature forecast for the southern United States and Canada. Including the week before Christmas. A widespread cold front could be seen, with cold air from the north of the United States to the south and east.
We see stronger pressure patterns this winter. Below you can see the pressure anomalies from the weekly forecast of the ECMWF. A strong blocking pattern dominates the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.
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A strong low pressure system is moving into the North Pacific Ocean from the North Atlantic/Greenland region over Canada. This strongly disrupts the jet stream, removing cold air from the arctic regions and sending it further south than usual.
As we look to the rest of winter, take a quick look at the latest seasonal forecasts. A powerful high pressure system in the Pacific Ocean is the main driver of North American weather patterns. In response, the low pressure continues over Canada, circling the jet stream over the northwestern United States and eastern Canada.
In North America, the latest ECMWF forecast shows average cold surface temperatures from western Canada and parts of the northern United States. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across the southern United States, with a weak northerly transition in the Midwest.
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The southern and central United States will be warmer than normal, while the Northwest and Midwest will see cooler temperatures. But such a weather pattern also supports a cold front over the central and eastern United States, as will happen this month.
Anomalous precipitation forecasts for North America show a typical La Niña pattern in Canada and the United States. More rain is forecast for western and northwestern Canada and the eastern United States. It gets drier in the southwestern United States.
Looking at the projected surface temperature probability over Europe, we see a warmer pattern. Most continents are in the warm temperature range. However, the average temperature is higher in the western/southern regions. While the second half of December is cold in the US, Europe is expected to experience a short cold spell, mostly with a cold front.
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Looking at the rainfall forecast, mainland Europe is seeing drier rainfall signals. However, more rain is expected in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe.
But what drives this winter pattern? How will this affect the spring climate of 2023?
One of the main drivers of this cold season is the La Nina event in the tropical Pacific.
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In the image below you can see the recent ocean temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean. Note that surface waters in tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean are usually cooler. It is a mature La Niña event that is propagated across the equatorial Pacific by the trade wind.
The presence of cold air is the main characteristic of the climate development from late autumn to spring.
La Nina is simply another name for ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The actual ocean-atmosphere system is called ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). A region between the cold and warm levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
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Tropical trade winds (winds that pass over the Earth near the equator) usually begin at a certain level by stirring up the ocean surface and changing ocean currents.
In the image below from NOAA Climate; You can see a typical circulation pattern during the cold ENSO ocean process. Winds from the eastern Pacific Ocean create a stable, dry climate. On the contrary, The atmosphere in the western Pacific is rising and low pressure; It often produces thunderstorms and rain in the western Pacific.
ENSO has a major influence on tropical convection patterns and the ocean-atmosphere system. Through this subtle feedback system, It spreads climate effects worldwide.
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We typically observe changes in global pressure patterns during ENSO phases, each of which has unique effects on the global climate.
To better understand the development of ENSO; We have prepared a video showing the 2022 ocean temperature anomalies from summer to autumn.
ENSO cooling resumed in August when a cold wave formed in the equatorial Pacific. However, it became stronger in September, because the east wind became stronger.
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The analysis and ensemble forecast below from ECMWF shows the forecast for the eastern ENSO region. La Niña conditions (below -0.5) prevail in winter. But La Nina is expected to weaken soon, with a significant shift to warmer levels as we move deeper into spring.
See the ocean shape forecast map; We can see that ECMWF predicts a neutral zone in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This indicates a rapid decay of La Niña between January and March, but its climatic impact is still expected in the spring.
Typically, the first effect of these ocean anomalies can be seen in the jet stream. A jet stream is a large, powerful stream of air (air) at an altitude of about 8–11 km (5–7 mi).
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It moves from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere, influencing pressure systems and their strength. It is the surface weather pattern that we experience every day.
Historically, a high pressure system in the North Pacific is the most common effect of the ENSO phase due to the cold front. The figure below shows the average pattern over the last couple of winters during an active La Nina phase.
A strong low pressure system in the North Pacific is strengthening a low pressure area forming over Alaska and western Canada. This causes the jet flow to reverse between the two pressure systems as indicated by the blue lines.
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These effects usually translate well into spring. So we often see a low pressure area over the North Pacific persist even after winter.
The average position of the jet stream during La Nina winters can be seen in the figure below. You can also see the resulting weather patterns in the US and Canada when the polar current goes the other way.
A changing jet stream is bringing cooler temperatures and storms to the north and northwest of the United States. But the southern and eastern states generally produce hotter and drier weather.
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In this way, the jet stream can divide the United States into two climate poles. In the northern part of the country, colder and wetter events are more common, as the jet stream storm systems and cooler weather are directed there.
We focus on the two main (or most used) seasonal models for early emergence forecasting. ECMWF from Europe and CFSv2 graphs from the US are from ECMWF and CPC/NCEP.
All these forecasts show an average picture for three spring weather months (March-April-May) and show current weather patterns. Although the models are very accurate; It does not mean that such weather conditions will continue for three months. 40-60% of the time it only suggests what weather patterns are possible.
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The pressure model forecast below from ECMWF shows a typical La Niña pressure system in the North Pacific. A low pressure area is over western Canada and a second high is over Greenland. The jet stream bends between high pressure systems as seen in the previous section.
The North Atlantic is observed to be in a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode, which blocks the North Atlantic. It generally prefers cooler times in mainland Europe.
The global air temperature forecast below divides North America into two regions. Western Canada will be cooler than normal. Because of the jet stream, colder air in the northern United States; There is a good chance it will spread to the Midwest and Northeast United States. South America is expected to be warmer than normal.
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Europe also has above normal temperatures but we do not see strong positive anomalies due to the high pressure system over Greenland.
A closer look at Europe shows that surface temperatures are generally above normal. how