Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023 – Get the inside scoop on the 2024 winter weather forecast/outlook with a comprehensive live weather guide. Live Weather’s winter weather forecast relies on ocean patterns, atmospheric conditions and historical data to provide you with reliable information.
Stay one step ahead of the weather by knowing temperature trends, precipitation patterns and the potential for severe winter events such as tornadoes and heavy snow. The 2023 – 2024 winter weather forecast/forecast will help you plan your big events as well as travel and work. This is similar to the forecast published by the Farmers’ Almanac.
Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023
While winter weather forecasts are uncertain, Live Weather strives to provide you with the most accurate forecasts. When weather phenomena such as El Nino or La Nina occur, their forecasts take these factors into account to give you a general idea of what to expect.
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Prepare for the upcoming winter season by accessing our reliable weather forecasts. Our reliable data and knowledge empowers you to make informed decisions and adapt to changing winter conditions. Don’t let winter pass you by – check out our winter weather forecast.
Winter brings cold weather, frozen landscapes and the possibility of snow and ice. It requires wrapping up in warm clothes, exploring the trails, and enjoying seasonal activities like skiing and cozy fireplace atmosphere. Be sure to check the unofficial weather page for updates on the 2023-2024 winter forecast. A first look at the winter 2023/2024 forecast shows the clear impact of the new El Niño event. There is a noticeable change in the jet stream pattern compared to last year due to variable weather patterns over the central and eastern United States and northern Europe.
The global climate system is complex, with many factors influencing large- and small-scale climate. An increasing El Niño phenomenon will be the main culprit behind the 2023/2024 winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
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First, we quickly go through El Niño regions, look at recent ocean trends, and look at past El Niño events and weather patterns during these winters. We compare this data with new long-term forecasts to see how strong this El Niño event will be during the 2023/24 winter season.
Oceans cover more than 70% of the planet’s surface and play an important role in the Earth’s climate system. In the image below you can see how the oceans and the atmosphere interact. It is very complicated, but you can see many small and big situations on both levels.
And it is important to understand that this system goes both ways. For example, we sometimes look at how the oceans affect our lifestyles and long-term weather conditions, and weather affects marine art.
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Tropical trade winds are an important link between oceans and climate. You can mix ocean surface layers and change sea surface current and temperature. This can lead to changes in precipitation, pressure distribution and weather feedback.
But what are the trade winds? The trade winds are steady and persistent, blowing equatorward in both hemispheres. The image below shows the international winds with trade winds in yellow and red.
Depending on their strength and direction, they can create intense thermal disturbances on the ocean floor and near the equator.
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Therefore, it is important to note that although the oceans can play a direct role in climate, they also change with climate.
Many ocean regions around the world are important in one way or another. We can have monthly, seasonal or decadal variations in the oceans. They can be used as an indicator light on your car’s dashboard to sometimes tell us a small part of the road ahead.
Looking at the latest global ocean anomalies, we’ve highlighted three areas to watch for growth in winter 2023/2024. Each has its own role and importance in different domains and time scales.
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At its center is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is one of the most famous ocean oscillations, especially in winter. It is currently in a warm (El Niño) phase.
At the top right is the unusually warm North Atlantic Ocean, while in the middle of the top you can see the intense warm conditions of the North Pacific Ocean.
We will briefly cover winter’s main area of influence, ENSO. We look at the current development and forecasts. But we also look at the historical pattern associated with this unusual behavior and what it can tell us about the winter of 2023/2024.
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ENSO is short for “El Nino Southern Oscillation”. This region of the equatorial Pacific alternates between warm and cold phases. There is usually a phase change every 1-3 years.
ENSO strongly influences tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and complex oceanic and atmospheric circulation. With some delay, these changes affect transmission to the rest of the world.
The NOAA climate below shows the typical distribution of an El Niño event, which will be the dominant phase through spring 2024.
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During El Niño, rising air in the eastern Pacific brings more storms and rain and lowers pressure in the region. At the same time, air descends in the western Pacific, creating stable weather and high pressure.
In this way, El Niño strongly influences tropical rainfall and pressure conditions and influences the ocean–atmosphere feedback system. In this ocean-atmosphere system, the influence of ENSO is globally distributed.
Below we have the latest surface analysis of the warm Pacific Ocean. We can see the warm signs of an El Niño event starting in the eastern Pacific and spreading westward.
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El Niño forms during periods of weak trade winds, which tells us a lot about its global distribution. In this way, we can use these ocean anomalies as “indicators” to determine the current state of the global climate system.
Below you can see the oceanic ensembles of the last two years in the ENSO region. By 2022, you can expect a third La Nina event and rapid ocean warming leading to an active El Niño.
To better understand the development of ENSO, we created a video showing the ocean crisis from late winter to winter.
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Cooler La Niña anomalies develop rapidly in winter, with warmer anomalies occurring in early spring. Note the movement of enamel on the seabed, driven by the trade winds.
Here is an analysis/forecast chart from ECMWF, showing a long-term forecast of the main ENSO region. The ACMWF forecast puts the winter average above 2 degrees abnormal, which would be considered a strong El Niño event. The stronger the event, the stronger the seasonal weather phenomenon.
If you look at ECMWF’s winter 2023/24 ocean forecast, you can see a strong El Niño event extending into the tropical Pacific. An event of this magnitude is strong enough to have a profound global atmospheric response. A stronger impact is expected during the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Winter Weather Forecast / Prediction
Typically, the first impact of these ocean anomalies is seen in the changing jet stream. A jet stream is a large, strong current of air (wind) at an altitude of 8-11 km (5-7 miles).
The west-to-east movement flows through the Northern Hemisphere, interacting with pressure systems and shaping our atmospheric climate.
Below is an example of the winter jet stream at an altitude of 9 km/5.6 mi. You can see how the jet stream bends over the central United States. It is an upward curve in North-West Europe. Such a system brings cold weather to the eastern United States and brings thunderstorms to Iceland and the British Isles.
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The jet stream is a very important part of winter history. El Niño is one of the main ways it can change the weather, especially in North America.
During El Niño winters, there is usually a strong and persistent low pressure area in the North Pacific. This pushes the polar jet stream north, bringing warmer than normal temperatures to the northern United States and western Canada.
But the South Pacific jet stream expands and strengthens during El Niño, when low pressure and storms bring more rain and cold air to the southern United States.
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You can just see it in the forecast of the jet stream anomalies for December 2023 below. It shows the strong subsurface jet stream that is common in the southern United States. Image by meteorologist Ben Knoll.
A stronger subtropical jet favors the transport of moisture to the southern United States and thus increases the chance of snowfall in the southern states and the mid-Atlantic. That is, if there is enough cold air.
This type of pattern will bring cooler temperatures and more snow to areas of the central and southern United States, especially the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States.
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The figure below shows the average winter pressure pattern for previous El Niño winters during the satellite era. You can see a strong low pressure area in the North Pacific.
