Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023 – A first look at the forecast for the winter of 2023/2024 shows a clear impact of the new El Niño event. There is a significant change in jet stream patterns from last year, with new trends for dynamic weather patterns over the central and eastern United States and northern Europe.

The global climate system is complex, with many large- and small-scale climate influences. A growing El Nino will be the main culprit for the 2023/2024 winter season across the Northern Hemisphere.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

First, we’ll take a quick look at El Niño regions, analyze the latest ocean anomalies, and look at past El Niño events and winter weather patterns. We will combine and compare this data with recent long-term forecasts to see how strongly this El Niño event will affect the 2023/24 winter season.

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Oceans cover more than 70% of the planet’s surface and play an important role in the Earth’s climate system. In the image below, you can see how the oceans and atmosphere interact. It’s quite complicated, but you can see many small and large factors at both levels.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

And it’s important to understand that this system goes both ways. For example, we sometimes look at ocean anomalies and how they will affect our long-term weather patterns, when weather also affects ocean anomalies.

Tropical trade winds are an important link between the oceans and weather. They can mix surface ocean layers and change surface currents and ocean temperatures. This can then lead to changes in precipitation, pressure distribution and weather response.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

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But what are the trade winds? The trade winds are persistent and persistent, blowing toward (and past) the equator in both hemispheres. The image below shows the prevailing global winds, with the trade winds highlighted in yellow and red.

Depending on their strength and direction, they can create strong surface ocean temperature anomalies at and around the equator.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Therefore, it is very important to note that although the oceans can directly play their climatic role, they also change due to weather conditions.

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Many ocean regions around the world are important in one way or another. We may have monthly, seasonal or multi-decadal anomalies in the oceans. Sometimes they can tell us a small part of what is going to happen in the future, as they can be used as indicator lights on your car’s dashboard.

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Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Looking at the latest global ocean anomalies, we’ve highlighted three areas we see for winter 2023/2024 growth. Each has its own role and importance in different domains and time scales.

At the center is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is one of the most famous ocean oscillations, with a particularly strong influence during the winter. It is currently in a warm (El Niño) phase.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

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In the upper right is the unusually warm North Atlantic Ocean, while in the upper center, you can see the strong warm anomalies of the North Pacific Ocean.

We will briefly cover ENSO, the main area of ​​winter influence. We will review its current development and prognosis. But we’ll also look at the historical patterns associated with this anomaly and what it might tell us about the winter of 2023/2024.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation. This region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean alternates between warm and cold phases. Generally, phase changes occur every 1-3 years.

Tim’s 2022 2023 Dc Area Winter Forecast

ENSO significantly affects tropical precipitation, pressure patterns, and complex ocean–atmosphere exchange. With some delay, these changes affect traffic around the world.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

The image below from NOAA Climate shows the typical circulation during an El Niño event, which will be the dominant phase through spring 2024.

During El Niño, rising air in the eastern Pacific causes more storms and rain and lowers the pressure in that region. At the same time, air descends in the western Pacific, causing stable weather and high pressure conditions.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

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Thus, El Niño significantly affects tropical rainfall and pressure patterns and thus affects the ocean–atmosphere feedback system. Through this ocean-atmosphere system, ENSO’s influence spreads globally.

Below we have the latest surface analysis of the tropical Pacific Ocean. We can see the strong warm anomalies of the El Niño event starting in the eastern tropical Pacific and spreading westward.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

El Niño forms during periods of weak trade winds, which can tell us a lot about global circulation. In this way, we can use these ocean anomalies as “indicators” to know the current state of the global climate system.

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Winter Forecast Preview

Below you can see the last two years of ocean anomalies in the ENSO region. You could see a third La Niña event in 2022 and a rapid rise in ocean temperatures leading to an active El Niño event.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

We created a video showing the ocean anomalies from late winter to summer to better understand the development of ENSO.

Cold La Niña anomalies stop quickly during winter and warm anomalies appear in early spring. Note the movement of sea level anomalies caused by the trade winds.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

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Here is an analysis/forecast graphic from ECMWF, showing the long-term forecast of the main ENSO region. ECMWF forecasts exceed the 2 degree anomaly by mid-winter on average, which is considered a strong El Niño event. The stronger the event, the stronger its seasonal effect is generally.

Looking at the winter 2023/24 ocean forecast from ECMWF, you can see a strong El Niño event spreading across the tropical Pacific. An event of this magnitude is powerful enough to cause a profound atmospheric response worldwide. A stronger impact is expected during the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Typically, the first effect of these oceanic anomalies can be seen in the changing jet stream. A jet stream is a large and strong current of air (wind) at an altitude of about 8–11 km (5–7 m) above sea level.

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It flows in a west-to-east motion across the Northern Hemisphere, interacting with pressure systems and shaping our surface weather.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Below is an example of the winter jet stream at an altitude of about 9 km/5.6 mi. You can see how the jet stream curves over the central United States. It slopes upwards in northwestern Europe. Such formations bring cold weather to the eastern United States and hazy winters to Iceland and the British Isles.

The jet stream is a very important part of winter history. This is one of the main ways that El Niño can change weather patterns more directly, especially in North America.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

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During the winter season of El Niño, there is usually a strong and persistent area of ​​low pressure in the North Pacific. It pushes the polar jet stream further north, bringing warmer than normal temperatures to the northern United States and western Canada.

But during El Niño, the South Pacific jet stream grows larger and stronger, bringing low pressure and storms with heavy rain and cold weather to the southern United States.

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Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

You can see the same in the jet stream anomaly forecast below for December 2023. It shows the typical strong subtropical jet stream over the southern United States. Photo by meteorologist Ben Knoll.

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A strong subtropical jet supports the transport of moisture into the southern United States and thus increases the chances of snowfall in the southern states and the mid-Atlantic. That is if there is enough cool air available.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

This pattern will bring cooler temperatures and more snowfall to the central and southern United States, especially the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States.

The figure below shows the mean winter pressure pattern for previous El Niño winters during the satellite era. You can see the low pressure area characteristic of El Niño in the North Pacific. An area of ​​high pressure is centered over Canada, with low pressure and rainstorms covering the southern United States.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

What Can We Expect This Winter 2022 2023

Another area of ​​high pressure is over southern Greenland and northwestern Europe. This helps create a more northerly flow in central and northern Europe.

Looking at the average El Niño winter temperature anomalies, you can see cooler temperatures in the southern United States and parts of the eastern United States. The northern part of the country is warmer than normal with the heat spreading across southern Canada.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

In terms of precipitation, an average El Niño winter brings more rain to the southern United States, especially the Southeast. However, drier winter conditions prevail in the northwestern United States and around the Great Lakes.

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An El Niño event also changes snowfall patterns, as shown in the image below. Typically, we see less snowfall during El Niño winters in the northern United States. But Central and South America get more snowfall during El Niño. and also at higher elevations in parts of the mid-Atlantic and southwestern United States.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

This is mainly due to lingering low pressure systems in the southern United States. As there is more moisture, chances of snow in the southern part of the country are increasing. But much depends on the availability of cold air from the north.

After passing through Canada and the United States, the jet stream moves into the North Atlantic, where it can follow different paths.

Winter Forecast 2023 To 2023

Winter Weather Forecast / Prediction For 2022

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