Winter Weather 2023 23 – First look at the forecast for the winter of 2022/2023. shows the influence of the third phase of La Niña. This will change the nature of the air flow in North America and the Pacific and extend it to the rest of the world. But a new maritime crisis is brewing and there will be opportunities.
To understand and understand winter weather, we need to know that there are many “drivers” of the weather. Earth’s climate is a very complex system, with many large and small climatic influences. Let’s first look at what La Nina is and how it will affect the 2022/2023 winter season.
Winter Weather 2023 23
Below is an example of La Niña winter pressure on 10/11. Blocks of high pressure over Greenland and the North Pacific, low pressure and cold air from the United States into Europe. This is what every winter hunter in Europe and America looks forward to every winter. But we will see if we can see a similar trend in the first forecast for winter 2022/2023.
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Oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface and play an important role in the global system. In the picture below you can see the air-sea interaction. It is very difficult, but you will see a binary system with many small and large objects.
The key word here is “bidirectional”. For example, we sometimes look at ocean currents and how they affect our climate in the long term, because weather also affects ocean currents.
The trade winds are an important link between the ocean and the sky. Oceanic plates are coming together and can change surface currents and ocean temperatures. This can lead to changes in flow and pressure distribution.
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But what are trade winds? The trade winds are steady and persistent, blowing toward (and along) the equator in both hemispheres. In the picture below you can see the global winds and trade winds in yellow and red.
Therefore, it is very important to understand that although the oceans can make exactly what the weather is like, they also change due to weather conditions.
There are many marine areas around the world that are important in some way. In the oceans, we can have monthly, seasonal or decadal cycles. They can sometimes tell us a small part of what is to come.
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Looking at the latest trends in the ocean, we have identified two main areas of the world that we see developing in the winter of 2022/2023. Each has its own role and importance in different regions and scales.
At its center is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It is one of the most popular sea otters, and is especially active in winter.
On the left side (red frame), you will see the Dual Mode Index (DMI). It changes based on the temperature difference between the eastern and western Indian Ocean.
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We will briefly talk about these two areas with basic information, analysis and forecasts. Also, we will look back at the previous models related to these collections and what they can say about the winter of 2022/2023.
ENSO stands for “El Niño Southern Oscillation”. This area of the equatorial Pacific alternates between warm and cold periods. The transition phase usually occurs every 1-3 years.
The cold period is called La Nina, and the warm period is called El Niño. We are currently in the La Niña phase, entering the third year, which is rare.
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ENSO strongly influences tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. We see significant pressure changes in lawns with each new stage of development. With a slight delay, these changes affect the world circulation.
The image below from NOAA Climate shows the normal circulation during the cool ENSO season. Winds move down the eastern Pacific, promoting wet and dry weather. At the same time, winds are picking up in the western Pacific with heavy rain and low pressure.
ENSO therefore strongly influences rainfall and pressure patterns and the feedback system of ocean accumulation. Through this ocean wave system, ENSO’s influence spreads around the world.
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Below is the latest analysis of the surface of the Pacific Ocean. We can see cold variations in selected ENSO regions. This is currently entering the third annual phase of a strong La Niña.
La Nina causes strong trade winds, which have a lot to say about global circulation. Therefore, we can use these accumulations as “signals” to understand the state of the Earth’s climate system.
Below you can see the last two years of ocean instability in the ENSO region. You will see the first La Nina event in 2020 and the second La Nina event in late 2021. A third year of development is predicted in the fall and winter of 2022/2023.
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To better understand the evolution of ENSO, we created a video showing La Niña flashes from late spring to summer. The video below shows the differences between the cold seas in the Pacific Ocean. Note the “wave pattern” across the region as the trade winds push the surface water westward.
Below is the ECMWF forecast analysis/chart, showing the long-term forecast for the main ENSO region. La Niña conditions persist through the fall and winter. But La Nina is expected to weaken early next year, and El Niño is expected to emerge later in the year.
The ocean model predicts cooler variations in the Pacific during late fall and early winter. As you can see in the picture, another area in the west is selected.
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In general, the first effect of these ocean disturbances is visible in changes in air currents. A jet stream is a large and powerful flow of air (wind) at an altitude of 8-11 km (5-7 mi).
It flows from west to east around the entire northern hemisphere, interacting with pressure systems and shaping our surface climate.
Below is an example of a winter air current at an altitude of 9 km/5.6 mi in winter. You can see the jet stream across the central United States. It curves upwards over western Europe. These structures bring cold weather to the eastern United States and winter storms to Iceland and the British Isles.
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Airflow is an important part of this story. This is one of the main ways La Nina can directly change the weather, especially in North America.
Traditionally, a high pressure system blocking the North Pacific is the main effect of the cold ENSO phase. The polar jet stream usually moves north of the United States.
The image below shows the average pattern during past La Niña winters. We may see a strong high pressure system in the North Pacific and an area of low pressure over Canada and western Europe.
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The strong circulation of the high pressure system promotes the development of a low pressure area over Alaska and western Canada. This causes the flow to bend downward between the two pressure systems.
Looking at the temperature analysis for one winter, we see an area of cold anomaly below the jet stream in western Canada and the northern United States. There is also a cold problem in Europe, but not like La Niña.
You can see that flight order in the picture below. The figure shows the average location of the La Niña winter jet stream and the weather patterns that occur over the United States and Canada.
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The change in air flow brings heat and storms from the polar regions to the north and west of the US and warm and dry weather to the southern regions.
In the northern part of the country, we will see cold and rain more often, because air currents lead storm systems. But it may shut down the southern part of the United States, resulting in warm and stable weather with fewer storms and cold.
Looking at runoff patterns, runoff could be higher in the northern half of the United States. This is where most cold areas and storm systems pass through during the La Niña winter. It is mostly dry in South America.
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But for winter and air flow, what about snow? Well, the change in airflow also changes the chance of snow, because the pressure systems move differently.
Colder air penetrates the northern United States more easily, and the possibility of snow is greater if moisture is available. Areas like Alaska, Canada and the northern/western United States benefit from more snow. Graphics provided by NOAA-Climate.
After crossing Canada and the United States, the jet stream moves towards the North Atlantic. From there it can take different paths. Much depends on the general circulation patterns and pressure systems in the Atlantic.
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Here, La Niña loses its direct influence in Europe, as regional weather systems in the Atlantic take their place. But it usually still has a big impact, because it changes