Winter Weather 2023 23 – The US GFS model is simulating below average temperatures in the eastern US for the next two weeks. (Weather clock)
In mid-February, air temperatures 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole rose as high as 50 degrees, setting off a chain reaction that is already affecting North American weather. Known as “sudden stratospheric warming”, the sudden warming of the stratosphere – the second layer of Earth’s atmosphere – disrupted the polar vortex and caused it to collapse.
Winter Weather 2023 23
Want to know how your actions can help change our planet? Subscribe to the Climate Coach newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. Right arrow
Old Farmer’s Almanac Canada Winter Forecast For 2023 2024: Bone Chilling Cold And A Winter Whiteout
After the episode three weeks ago, the weather-altering dominoes have fallen in North America. Now it looks like parts of the eastern United States — which so far have largely escaped the wrath of Old Man Winter — may be in for a cold snap and an increased chance of winter storms.
Already the development of high pressure over Greenland—the textbook answer to polar vortex disturbances—is helping to remove cold air from the Arctic and move it south. The Arctic has suddenly turned unusually mild in many areas as below-average temperatures reach the eastern United States, while a pair of winter storms prepare to march from the upper Midwest into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic interior.
It’s getting closer and closer to astronomical spring on the calendar, but winter may not be ready to let go of its grip just yet. Experts believe the disruption of the polar vortex is already having an effect – and the latest winter storm may be felt.
Relatively Mild Winter Weather Continues
Season in the life of a polar vortex: 1/12/2022 – mid-March 2023 steady winds at 10 hPa level. #PolarVortek #ECMVF #MODES Other levels at https://t.co/H5jIkKslHOZ pic.tvitter.com/jsGvZk4dEg — Nedjeljka Žagar (@NedjeljkaZ) March 8, 2023
The stratospheric polar vortex is like a violent atmospheric vortex two or three times larger than commercial airplanes fly. The cold temperatures above the North Pole caused by the lack of sunlight cause the air columns to become denser and contract towards the Earth. This creates a kind of vacuum in the upper atmosphere, causing an effect similar to an internal vacuum. As the surrounding air spirals into a counterclockwise vortex, it also cools, repeating the same process.
The stronger the vortex, the faster it spins. This keeps the arctic cold at high latitudes. But if something happens to weaken the vortex or disrupt its circulation, blocks of bone-chilling air can sweep into the midlatitudes.
Worried About Snow Storms? What This Japanese Elm Forecasts For Winter
It takes weeks, but after each break in the polar vortex or sudden warming of the stratosphere, the effects can start to show in the lower atmosphere.
“It is quite typical that [there is] a long delay between its onset and the largest apparent weather impact,” Columbia University atmospheric scientist Simon Lee wrote in an email.
Lee said the sudden stratospheric warming occurred in two waves — winds in the stratospheric polar rings reversed initially on Feb. 16, and then the rings doubled, weakening by the end of the month.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Canada 2023/24 Archives
“[The February 16 event] was initially too short and too loud to have much of an impact, but as this got stronger, things changed,” Lee wrote.
The researchers point to several signs that a sudden warming of the stratosphere has begun to shape weather patterns in the mid-latitudes.
First, the weakening of the polar vortex helped turn the AO, or Arctic Oscillation, into a negative state. When the AO is positive, cold air tends to condense over the Arctic because the polar vortex is strong and stable. However, when the AO is negative, it indicates that the vortex is disturbed and the floodgates are open for arctic air to flow south.
Winter Storm Summary For February 21 23, 2023
Judah Cohen, a researcher in atmospheric and environmental studies, likened the polar vortex’s partial effect on mid-latitude weather to a “drop of paint,” where each drop signaled the onset of cold air and potential winter weather. He says one is already affecting northeastern North America and wrote in a direct message on Twitter that models “will also buy another trough or dip in about a week, [suggesting] there could be more.”
Second, the “Greenland block” was established. One of the symptoms of classic sudden warming of the stratosphere is the frequent formation of this block, a solid dome of high pressure near Greenland. It turns the jet stream south in eastern North America and allows cold air from the Arctic to flow south.
While much of the eastern United States has seen record-breaking heat since the December holidays, cooler weather is starting to trickle in. For the next six to 10 days, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says the east has a “very likely” chance of below-average temperatures and calls for cooler-than-average weather through early April.
Ky. Weather Recap: Remembering The ‘lack Thereof’ Winter In 2022 2023
In addition, the presence of a stalled high pressure system may promote a type of atmospheric congestion, which maintains average storminess along the East Coast. Although it hasn’t happened yet, the signs point to a draw in the next 1-2 weeks. Forecast models show the possibility of a mix of rain and snow from successive storm systems late this week and early next week across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Atlantic.
In the call, Cohen explained that the effects of the vortex disruption probably started at least a week ago.
“I think we’ve already seen the effects,” he said. “We had a closed low pressure system over western Russia and eastern Europe. It was cold and snowy. We’ve also seen a closed low pressure develop in Maritime Canada. Boston, New York and DC didn’t see much snow, but the ski resorts in New England did.
Fyi: Northeast Winter Weather Travel Waiver // February 23 24, 2023
He explained the tremors in some of the northern New England snow in late February after the breakup of the polar vortex.
“Portland, Maine, is basically a normal [snow] season,” he said. “I think it was the accelerating effect of the polar vortex disruption.”
But one thing is sure to work against the snowfall, much to the dismay of winter lovers – the weather. The days get longer, the angle of the sun increases and whispers of spring begin to creep into the atmosphere.
Unusually Cold Storm System Adds To Bay Area Winter Weather Marathon
“The clock must be striking midnight,” Cohen said. “After a week or two, the impact of the polar vortex may diminish or disappear… but it’s still a question mark.” Every year since 1818, the Farmer’s Almanac has provided an extended weather forecast to help people plan ahead, and he just dropped the long-awaited winter forecast on 23.24. Check out the full weather forecast below to see what winter has in store for you next season.
Wondering what the extended weather forecast is for the coming winter? Will there be a blizzard or three – enough snow to plow and play? Is the cold causing a chill in your garden? Here’s an extended 2024 winter weather forecast for farmers, including a mandatory winter warning.
“After last year’s weird and warm winter season, this winter should be a treat for cold weather lovers – especially in the Great Lakes, Midwest and northern New England.” “brrr” is back! We expect more snow and cold throughout the country. – Reporter Pete Geiger BRRR is back!
N.j. Weather: As Snow Ends Today, Forecasters Tracking Another Winter Storm Threat For Friday
Winter time is coming back. After last year’s warm winter anomaly, traditional cold temperatures and snowy weather conditions are returning to the contiguous United States. (Remember to read the winter weather warning below.)
Winter officially starts on Thursday 21 December 2023. But that doesn’t mean the frost and snow won’t wait until then. Did you know that weather winter starts on December 1st? December 2023 is predicted to start quite stormy. Our extended forecast calls for blizzards in areas of northern New England, the mid-north, and north-central New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
There are indications that El Niño (abnormally high water temperatures off the Pacific coast of South America) will mature in the second half of 2023, lasting until the winter of 2024. Taken together with our proven Formula forecast, this means that the entire low temperature should dominate the country and bring snow, sleet and ice.
Snow Continues Through Early Afternoon
Our extended weather forecast, based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, predicts below-average temperatures and plenty of blizzards, sleet, ice and rain across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest and central and northern New England, especially in January and February. (brrrr…)
An exceptionally snowy and wet winter is also predicted for the Pacific Northwest. If El Niño materializes, it could lead to a subtropical jet stream into California, leading to another wet and white winter that will keep California and the Southwest out of drought.
Winter in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains brings many cold temperatures and occasional storms that bring widespread rain and snow.
National Weather Service Updates Winter Storm Warning Information
Texans are forced to bundle up, as unseasonably cold weather is forecast for January and February, with potentially large