Winter Weather 2023 23 – We are still in the middle of summer, and the official NOAA forecast is several weeks away. But we thought it would be fun to look at NOAA’s long-term seasonal outlook and see what winter 23/24 has in store for us. For us. They were released on August 17. Updated last week in 2023.
Developments from the 2023-24 NDJ through the 2024 FMA season increase as winter temperatures increase the potential for above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the CONUS level of the North in the Midwest and Northeast. The effects of a stronger El Niño. Above normal temperatures in the southern CONUS level, with a trend toward cooler temperatures driven by the effects of El Niño. We estimate the same probability under close and under (EC).
Winter Weather 2023 23
Projected below-normal precipitation over northern CONUS levels from NDJ 2023-24 to FMA 2024 over the Pacific Northwest due to a strengthening El Niño. A more normal chance of rain for the southeast, and for this trend, the southern plains gradually develop to the southwest and west, consistent with a stronger El Niño. The US GFS model has cooler than average temperatures in the eastern US for the next two weeks. (bell of time)
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In mid-February, Between 10 and 30 miles above the North Pole, the air temperature rose to 50 degrees, setting in motion a chain reaction that already dominates the climate in North America. Known as a “sudden stratospheric warming” event, the sudden warming of the stratosphere (the second layer of Earth’s atmosphere) disrupts and dissipates the polar ocean.
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Over the past three weeks, the dominoes that have changed weather patterns in North America have begun to fall. Now, the eastern parts of the United States, which have so far avoided the wrath of Man’s Winter, seem to be preparing for cold weather and an increased chance of winter storms.
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The development of high pressure over Greenland (a classic response to the disturbances of the polar vortex) has already helped to move the cold air of the Arctic and transplant it to the south. As a pair of winter storms moves from the Midwest into the interior of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Arctic suddenly reaches below-normal temperatures in many areas in the eastern United States.
When the calendar approaches the astrological spring, it may not be ready for the winter to give up its control. Experts believe that the outage of the polar sea already has an impact, and the last wave of winter could be significant.
A season in the life of polar air: from December 1, 2022 to mid-March 2023, the wind speed is just at the level of 10 hPa. #PolarVortex #ECMWF #MODES https://t.co/H5jIxXlHOZ pic.twitter.com/jsGwZq4dEg — Nedjeljka Žagar (@NedjeljkaZ) March 8; 2023
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The stratospheric polar ocean is like a violent atmospheric plume located at two or three times the altitude at which commercial airliners fly. Cold temperatures over the North Pole due to the absence of the sun cause the air column to thicken and contract towards the ground. This creates a kind of vacuum on top of the vacuum, creating a vacuum effect. When the surrounding air rotates counterclockwise to the left, it is beautiful and repeats the same process.
The stronger the vortex, the faster it enters. This keeps the arctic cold at high latitudes. But if something happens, it weakens the vortex or disrupts its circulation. Cold air fronts can hit the mid-latitudes.
After any interruption of the polar sea or sudden episode of stratospheric warming, however several weeks later. The effects can begin to manifest in the lower atmosphere.
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“Long delays between onset and apparent effects on climate are typical,” Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, wrote in an email.
The February 16 stratospheric warming occurred in two phases: the initial reversal of the stratospheric poleward wind on February 16; Then, Lee said, that vortex doubled later in the month.
“[The February 16 event] was too short and too strong at first, but that changed when it was reinforced,” Lee wrote.
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The researchers point to several signs that sudden stratospheric upwelling in the mid-latitudes is shaping climate patterns.
First, A weakening of the polar currents helps push the AO, or Arctic Oscillation, into a negative state. When AO is positive; Because the cold air is strong and stable from the polar seas, it tends to block in the Arctic. But when the AO vibrates to the negative side. This indicates that the vortex is disrupted and the gates are open for arctic air to flow south.
Atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research says the gradual influence on mid-latitude climates marks the onset of cold air and winter, with each drop marking the cold air and possible winter weather. Models may show other twists or downslope influence in about a week, he said in a direct message on Twitter, which has already affected northeastern North America.
Snow Continues Through Early Afternoon
Second, the “Greenland block” was established. One of the classic symptoms of sudden warming of the green stratospheric warming process, a high pressure dome near Greenland, is often the establishment of this block. This diverts the jet stream over eastern North America to the south, inviting cold arctic air to the south.
Much of the eastern United States has experienced record-breaking heat since the December holidays, but cooler weather is on the way. Over the next six to 10 days, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center notes that an easterly is “very likely.” It requires below average temperatures and cooler than average weather until the beginning of April.
Additionally, a stable high pressure system can create an atmospheric gridlock pattern as it maintains an above average low pressure area over the East Coast for an average storm period. That hasn’t happened yet, but signs point to a rocky run in the next week or two. Forecast models show the possibility of a mix of rain and snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions late this week and early next week.
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In a phone call, Cohen explained that the effects of the vortex disturbance began a week ago.
“I think we have seen the effects. “A low pressure area is forming over western Russia and eastern Europe. It was cold and snowy there. We also see minimal closure efforts in Canadian maritime areas. Boston, New York and DC “They don’t see much snow, but they have New England ski resorts.”
He hypothesized that some of the snow in northern New England was suddenly shaken off in late February after the polar vortex broke up.
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“Portland, Maine is almost at normal (snowfall) levels for the season,” he said. “I think it has to do with the speed of the polar vortex disturbance.”
It is, One thing that certainly works against the snowfall, which is so frustrating for winter lovers. As the days pass, the angle of the sun increases and whispers of spring creep into the air.
“It’s almost midnight,” Cohen said. “After a week or two, the influence of the polar tides may decrease or disappear … but this remains a question mark.” every year since 1818; The Farmers’ Almanac has just released its highly anticipated winter 23/24 forecast, providing an extended weather forecast to help people plan ahead. See what winter has in store for you next season in the full forecast below.
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Want to know what the extended weather forecast is for the upcoming winter season? Will there be enough snow to shovel three storms? Will the cold weather make your yard cold? Here’s the Farmers Almanac’s extended weather forecast for the winter of 2024, including a winter weather warning you should consult.
“After last year’s unusually warm winter; This winter, especially the Great Lakes, is a treat for fans in the cold Midwest and northern New England. ‘brrr’ is back. “We look forward to more snow and cooler temperatures across the country.” – Editor Pete Geiger BRRR is back!
Winter is back. After last year’s unusually warm winter, traditional cold temperatures and snowy conditions are returning to the United States. (Be sure to read our winter weather warning below.)
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Winter is Thursday; December 21 It officially starts in 2023. But that doesn’t mean we’ll wait until then for cold and snowy conditions. Did you know that meteorological winter starts on December 1st? A storm is expected to begin in December 2023. Northern New England Our additional weather forecast calls for some blizzard conditions that will bring snow to the north central states and northern regions.