Winter Weather 2023 23 – The American GFS model is predicting cooler than average temperatures for the eastern United States for the next two weeks. (WeatherBell)
In mid-February, temperatures 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole rise to 50 degrees, setting off a chain reaction that affects the climate in North America. Known as a “warming flash” event, the sudden warming of the stratosphere – the second layer of the Earth’s atmosphere – disrupted the polar air currents and caused them to die.
Winter Weather 2023 23
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After A Record Warm February, Winter Cold Is Returning
Since then, three weeks ago, the dominoes have fallen with the weather in North America. It now appears that parts of the eastern United States, which have largely been hit by Old Man Winter so far, may have a higher chance of winter storms.
Already, the development of high pressure over Greenland – a textbook response to the disruption of the polar vortex – is helping to bring cold air from the Arctic and plant it in the south. The Arctic has suddenly turned mild in many areas, while temperatures in the eastern US are below average, while some winter storms are poised to move through the Midwest into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
It comes as the calendar approaches astronomical spring, but winter may not be ready to release its grip just yet. Experts believe that the disruption of the polar vortex is already having its impact – and the last winter storm Jau is being observed.
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Seasons in the Life of the Polar Current: 1 December 2022 – Mid March 2023 Balanced wind at 10 hPa. #PolarVortex #ECMWF #MODES other levels https://t.co/H5jIxXlHOZ pic.twitter.com/jsGwZq4dEg — Nedjeljka Žagar (@NedjeljkaZ) March 8, 2023
The polar stratospheric current is like a violent vortex of the atmosphere, which is two or three times higher than the altitude at which commercial airplanes fly. The cold temperatures over the North Pole caused by the lack of sunlight cause the air column to thicken and descend towards the earth. This creates a void in the upper atmosphere, creating a vacuum-like interior effect. As the air in the vortex flows to the right, it also cools, repeating the same process.
The vortex is strong, spins quickly. This preserves the cold arctic air that is present in the high latitudes. But if something weakens the current or disrupts its circulation, the bone-chilling air can drift down into the mid-latitudes.
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It takes several weeks, but after any break in the polar vortex or sudden stratospheric warming, the effects can start to show in the lower atmosphere.
Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, wrote in an email that “there is usually a long period between its onset and the apparent maximum effect on the climate.”
Mr Lee said the sudden stratospheric warming occurred in two waves – the initial phase of the polar stratospheric wind reversed on February 16, and then the weakening doubled at the end of the month.
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“[The February 16 event] was initially too short and too high to have much impact, but when it was stepped up, things changed,” Lee wrote.
The researchers point to several signs that sudden stratospheric warming is beginning to shape climate patterns in the Middle Ages.
First, the weakening of the polar vortex helped the AO, or Arctic Oscillation, become negative. When the AO is positive, cold air is often loaded over the Arctic due to the strong and stable polar vortex. But when the AO swings negative, it indicates that the vortex is broken and the floodgates are opening for arctic air to flow south.
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Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, compares the polar vortex’s effect on midseason climate to a “fall color,” with each drop signaling the onset of cold, wintry weather. He said one had already hit northeastern North America, and wrote in a direct message on Twitter that the pattern “still shows impacts that will taper off or taper off again in about a week [suggesting] there could be more.”
Second, the “Greenland Block” was created. One of the symptoms of a classic sudden stratospheric warming event is often the formation of this block, a standing dome of high pressure near Greenland. This shifts the jet stream southward in eastern North America and forces cold air from the arctic shock southward.
Although the eastern United States will be experiencing record-breaking heat as the December holidays arrive, the cold weather will begin to ease. For the next 6 to 10 days, the National Weather Service emphasized that there will be a tendency to “have a lot of gusts” in the east. Temperatures are below average, so early April is cooler than average.
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Additionally, a stalled high pressure system can cause all kinds of weather conditions, keeping the storm duration above average along the East Coast. While that hasn’t happened yet, the signs are of unstoppable growth. In the next one to two weeks. Forecast models suggest a possible mix of rain and snow from a storm system late this week and early next week across the Atlantic and Northeast.
In a phone call, Cohen explained that the effects of the vortex disruption may have started at least a week ago.
“I think we’ve already seen the impact,” he said. “We have a closed low pressure system over western Russia and southern Europe. out. It was cold and snowy. We also saw a closed low trying to develop offshore Canada. Boston, New York and DC didn’t get much snow. , but New England ski resorts have seen.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Canada 2023/24 Archives
He explained that the snow fell in northern New England in late February, last February after the South Pole dispute.
“Portland, Maine, has normal [snowfall] for the season,” he said.
However, one thing definitely works against the prospect of snow that makes winter lovers nervous — the weather. The days are getting longer, the angle of the sun is higher and whispers of spring are beginning to enter the atmosphere.
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“The clock must be striking midnight,” Cohen said. “After a week or two, the effects of the polar vortex may or may not fade … but that’s still a question.” It’s still the middle of summer and the official NOAA forecast is still several weeks away, but we think it should be. Check out NOAA’s long season overview and see what winter 23/24 may bring us. They were updated last week on August 17, 2023.
From 2023-2024 During the 2024 FMA of NDJ seasons, when the dominance extends from spring to winter, above-normal temperature increases are projected from the Pacific Northwest across the central and northeastern CONUS. The El Niño effect is intensifying. Most of the southern CONUS is forecast to have an equal chance of higher, near, and lower (EC) temperatures with a trend toward cooler temperatures due to the El Niño effect.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes region from NDJ 2023-24 to FMA 2024 due to the expected stronger El Niño. A higher chance of above-normal precipitation increases in the southeast and extends further west across the southern plains to the southwest, also consistent with a stronger El Niño. According to the 2023 edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, temperatures in the Prairies will average 7 degrees Celsius below normal in January.
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1 / 1 Winter forecast map according to the old farmer’s almanac. Image from The Old Farmer’s Almanac
LAKELAND – A staple in many homes in recent years, the new edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its annual forecast of what weather Canadians can expect during the winter months.
“Most Canadians should be prepared for a generally cool season, but with a ‘quiet chill,'” according to information from The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
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“Cold, cold, cold…however you say ‘cold,’ that’s what it’s been like for most Canadians this winter,” Janice Stillman, magazine editor.
. “But as an added ‘bonus’ we also expect an unusual light freeze in many parts of the country that will surprise with its severity.”
The 2023 forecast shows winter arriving early, with cold from the Yukon and northern Alberta moving down across the prairies and into southern Ontario and southwestern Quebec.
Winter 2022 23 Outlook
“Freezing conditions will occur through mid-to-late November 2022 and will likely worsen as the season progresses. For example, temperatures in the Prairies will average 7 degrees Celsius below normal in January,” Old Farmer’s said in a press release. Almanac. .
While temperatures will be normal or near normal across the rest of Canada, that doesn’t mean these areas will be neglected.